Morning all,

We’re sorry it’s been a while! We’ve been a busy unpacking some huge policy changes in the world of housing and beyond. And just when we thought we’d be able to kick off an update on a positive note… the local election results came in last week. Ouch!

Reform outperformed even the most ambitious expectations. The Tories are now about as relevant as my old MP3 player which contains one Savage Garden track that I couldn’t figure out how to delete.

And Labour? Well. It turns out running a country when the global economy sits in the hands of a Tangoed narcissist is hard. Let’s see what today’s trade deal brings!

For many local authorities, the elections mean that extremely inexperienced politicians who are aggressively keen to cut public spending will now be in control of budgets touching on housing, homelessness and care.

And those of us who’ve lived and breathed housing policy for the last 15 years are asking… what’s left to cut?

There is cause for concern about the impact that right-wing populism is having on political debate in Westminster. But dig deeper and you’ll see that the local election results are also more complex than they first seem.

The big risk now is that we’ll see a huge overcorrect in response to Reform’s success. Almost immediately, Labour sources were discussing the need for harder and faster cuts to welfare spending… while also teasing a possible softening of the policy on the winter fuel allowance.

The government must now wrestle with its conscience, the electorate, AND its self-imposed financial rules, as it decides whether to stick or twist on its current political trajectory.

Like everyone, we await the spending review, to be delivered by the Chancellor on 11 June, with bated breath (and possibly hiding behind a cushion).

The best thing that the housing sector can do now is advocate for the people it supports by telling their stories with power and conviction. And if you need help with that, we’re here for you.

Now to the detail….

Reform secured its position as the primary party of protest. Nigel Farage’s team picked up another seat in the Commons in the Runcorn by-election (defeating Labour by just six votes), took control of 10 councils and won 677 council seats in total. They also won mayoral races in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull & East Yorkshire.

It’s clear that they are managing to connect with disappointed voters. They are the most popular party in the country right now.

It’s interesting that Labour and the Conservatives ran data-driven campaigns, targeting people they know have voted for them before, while Reform concentrated on social media and talked to households where people had never voted. Something straight out of the Trump playbook?

Any councillors up for election in 2026 or 2027 are no doubt already speaking with their party hierarchy about how to hold back the Reform wave washing over the country.

The response from Labour and the Conservatives, so far, has been panic. Labour’s focused on delivering their General Election 2024 promises more rapidly, including improving the NHS and growing the economy.

However, Starmer’s advisers are suggesting that the June spending review should include a much more severe cut to benefit spending.

DWP officials say the government needs to cut £15m from the benefits bill to impact on the rate of growth and one cabinet source has said “the second tranche will be even more painful”.

That’s a pain many may not be able to endure.

Former Transport Minister Louise Haigh has led the calls from Labour’s soft left to take on Reform with policies that will win back more progressive voters.

Meanwhile the Conservatives fared far worse than Labour, meaning that Britain’s system of two or three party politics is being called into question meaningfully for the first time.

Under Kemi Badenoch, the party lost 674 council seats and lost control of 16 local authorities. Questions about her leadership have been deflected – Badenoch herself claims a change at the top would make little difference, which is probably true given the lack of compelling alternatives – but it remains unlikely she’ll still be heading the party at the next General Election. And that election might be the first truly European style electoral result Britain faces. A new political world to grapple with, maybe.

The Liberal Democrats had their best result ever in local democracy. This suggests they are a serious contender to become the second party in a future general election. Their particular brand of economic liberalism is hard to read at the moment: more supportive to the social housing sector’s position on benefits, disability and social care, but also proving to be a block to new development in areas where they are seeking to shore up former Tory support.

Meanwhile, looking at the numbers, you can see the country is not lurching to the right. Reform gains were cancelled out by Tory losses. Labour lost more than 160 council seats, but the Lib Dems and Greens cumulatively won more than that loss.

It seems Reform are simply picking up those abandoning the Tories, rather than benefitting from a sense of disenfranchisement among Labour voters.

Winter fuel payments are not the only welfare policy once again under debate. While most people were enjoying the Easter Bunny’s special deliveries, ministers reportedly spent the school holidays agreeing to rule out scrapping the two-child benefits cap.

There are 4.5 million children living in poverty in the UK, and that figure is set to rise. Figures released in March suggest the number of children living below the breadline has risen by 100,000 in just one year.

Early rumours suggested Starmer’s government intended to wait until it could remove the entire household benefit cap as well as the two-child limit, as in many areas simply abandoning the child limit won’t affect overall poverty rates. But that plan now seems long forgotten.

Labour sources cite the cap’s popularity with voters, but experts in tackling poverty are worried. A joint letter by anti-poverty charities including Barnardo’s, Save the Children UK and Citizens Advice was sent to the PM reminding him that child poverty is set to rise.

London Councils warned that the cost of meeting their homelessness duty is the biggest risk facing local authorities. The capital’s councils overspent their homelessness budgets by £330m in the last financial year. Building new homes and introducing protections for renters will go some way to stemming the tide of homelessness, but that is a long-term project.

Nationally the bill for temporary housing has doubled in the last five years and now exceeds £2bn. Shelter has warned that without a massive injection of funds into social housing and council budgets, the housing crisis will leave 206,000 children homeless in England by the end of this parliament.

In early April, MPs made a series of recommendations for temporary accommodation, including mandatory inspections, and a notification system so that children’s schools and GP practices are alerted when they move into a form of emergency accommodation. This is great policy, but puts even more pressure on all those services struggling to cope. Where is the money for such an improved service coming from?

More than 150 housing and care organisations signed a joint letter to 10 Downing Street warning that the supported housing sector could lose 70,000 supported homes unless there is immediate support to tackle the financial crisis they are facing.

The letter called for £1.6bn to meet the needs of those vulnerable residents and to offer them longer term security. There is a sense of existential angst among many working in supported housing. The signatories – which represent providers of 18% of all supported homes – warn that they may have to stop providing services altogether. With the focus on building for the many, what happens to those with additional needs?

According to new figures from the Office for National Statistics, quarterly housing completions were up 36% among housing associations in the final quarter of 2024 to 10,270 homes. However, starts dropped to 5,830 over the same period, the lowest total during the year. This doesn’t bode well for the government’s plan to hit its huge target of 1.5 million new properties by the end of its first term. Developing housing associations want to play their part in this push for new housing, but they are also (rightly) prioritising quality and sustainability over speed.

But some good news on building safety: recent figures show that the number of social housing blocks with unsafe cladding and no plan for remediation in place has dropped rapidly from 596 to 500.

A report from the Resolution Foundation thinktank found that inflation is affecting the relative thresholds at which savings make claimants ineligible for Universal Credit (UC). Personal savings between £6,000 and £16,000 are subject to a tapering system, and those with more than £16,000 in the bank cannot claim UC. The report also highlighted how these limits also undermine other government policies such as Help to Save – specifically designed to support savings for those on low incomes – and Lifetime ISAs, which promote long-term financial security. Had these thresholds risen with inflation, they would now be £10,000 and £27,000 respectively.

Just before Easter, the Spring Statement dropped. Here’s a reminder of the most important updates.

We’re delighted to welcome Emma Gerard, who has joined us full time as a junior account executive, supporting us on campaigns. Also, congratulations to the brilliant Els too, who is now promoted to account director.

We attended the CIH fundraiser in Edinburgh, a great opportunity to catch up with a few familiar faces and get together as a team. We were also at the HQN Housing Management Network annual conference and spotted a few of you there too.

There are more chances to see us in person coming up, as we’re supporting HQN with putting together some brilliant events – including the Estates Services Hub Annual Conference on 12 June. Book your place before it sells out!

We’re also in Brighton today for the annual CIH Conference by the seaside.

One of the big questions of our age is how to handle the surfeit of data we’re all dealing with daily. We were proud to work with Mobysoft to launch their new whitepaper focusing on this issue specifically for the housing sector, From Data to Decisions: A Comprehensive Guide to Developing a Data Strategy. We secured great coverage in Inside Housing, HQN, Housing Digital and CIH Unlocked, so you can read up more on what the findings say.

We secured a case study piece for our friends at BTP Architects in Architecture magazine, showcasing their brilliant Kingsway House project.

Our client Procure Plus launched its first construction workshop within the women’s prison at HMP Styal this month. The first group of women have already completed the programme – congratulations to them all. Procure Plus also featured in CIH Unlocked, sharing their expertise on the challenges of the Procurement in a useful Q&A.

Congratulations to our friends at Cardo who continued their impressive growth plans with a deal to acquire Breyer Group’s roofing division last month.

And a tip of the hat to the team at Rochdale Boroughwide Housing. The organisation returned to compliance after been awarded a G2 grading by the Regulator of Social Housing. They are keen to stress that, while lots of work has been done at the landlord, there remains lots to do and the improvement journey continues.

Meanwhile, our friends at WISH have appointed a new managing director in Jayne Entwistle. We’re really looking forward to working with Jayne and the team.

WISH’s outgoing President Tracey McEachran featured in Inside Housing with a blog reflecting on her #HearHerVoice campaign.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation is running some great lunch and learn sessions with the CIH this year on how to communicate about housing. Create a free CIH account and get booking https://www.cih.org/events/lunch-and-learn-how-to-talk-about-homes-a-new-series/

Bobbie shared his thoughts for the housing sector’s comms priorities for 2025 in his most recent blog for HQN, and in a post for TPAS  Cymru blog. He reminds us of something that the government would do well to remember now too: communication is a dialogue.

These blog posts won’t sort out all the world’s problems, of course, but there’s some good advice in them which might help you sort out some of the problems you’ve got lurking in your to-do pile.

Don’t forget to let us know if you have an exciting project coming up. We can make sure everyone has a chance to hear about it.

Have a great month and enjoy the sunshine,

Bobbie, Els, Will, Siobhan, Emma and all at Hough Bellis